According to a story from The Hill, Trump needs a lot of white men to win. Trump’s popularity with white uneducated men is very strong, however those uneducated blocs usually don’t show up when they are truly needed. Because of that Trump is slated to lose without them.
A new Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania voters released Thursday found him facing an 11-point deficit to Clinton, 49 percent to 38 percent.
The survey shows Trump beating the Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania 53 percent to 31 percent among whites without college degrees, but only 45 percent to 35 percent among white men.
Clinton leads Trump in the poll among college-educated whites, 58 percent to 28 percent. She also leads among white women, 57 percent to 29 percent.
GOP strategists say Trump needs to close that gap by driving white men to the polls in numbers that haven’t been seen in recent election cycles.
“He will need somewhere in the 67 percent to 68 percent range of the white vote,” Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said of Trump.
The problem with depending on these uneducated voters is somewhat the same problem that Bernie Sanders had with the young educated millennials. They just didn’t show up to vote when it came time for them to do so. While they did show up to caucus for him in the primaries, when it came time to actually vote for him they just were not there in large enough numbers to put him over the top.
The white vote slumped in 2012, while turnout among black and Hispanic voters hit records as President Obama sought reelection. According to the Census Bureau, 17.8 million blacks voted that year, along with 11.2 million Hispanics and 3.9 million Asians.
No presidential candidate has won more than 66 percent of the white vote since Ronald Reagan’s landslide election in 1984, when he lost only the state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia.
McCain won 55 percent of the white vote in 2008, while then-President George W. Bush won 58 percent in 2004.
Demographic changes also mean the percentage of white voters in the electorate is unlikely to be as high this year as in the Reagan era, or possibly even four years ago.
Ayres predicts the electorate will consist of 69 percent white voters and 31 percent non-white voters.