Until such time as the United States becomes a nation where “we the People” actually elect the president, feel free to ignore the national polls. They are meaningless. If they meant anything, President Gore would be enjoying his retirement and George W. Bush would be the Commissioner of Major League Baseball.
You don’t need a lecture from me about the Electoral College. If you’re politically hip enough to read this website, you know how it works. The real race is to see who can get 270 Electoral Votes.
It’s really too early, anyway, to give too much credence to polls. There needs to be at least one debate under the belt before public opinion starts to gel. Therefore, the first debate this coming Monday is a big deal.
President Obama almost blew it in 2012 when Mitt Romney led him around the ring by the nose in the first debate. He talked down to Obama. He came off as steady and informed. Obama looked flustered and put off by the whole thing. He was able to recover sufficiently in the final two debates. (Romney’s admission that 47% of you are dirtbag leeches didn’t help his case either.)
We’ve been watching the red carpet show to this point. It’s been a bizarre thing to see, something that political science students will study in years to come. What we’ve seen so far is the “coming attractions,” the cartoon, the “Three Stooges” short, and the feature presentation begins on Monday,
Then, watch the polls. Not the national horse race polls. They’re still meaningless.
Watch the state-by-state polls. See if there are any significant changes after the debate. Then and only then will we have a serious idea of how the 2016 Presidential campaign may be decided.